8 events that happened this week that can trigger conflict in the Crypto market | Whuff News


This week can prove to be empty for the crypto market that will face serious obstacles from important economic data of the United States and Europe based on the example of the American elections.

The US and the Eurozone will reveal important macroeconomic numbers this week that have historically been the source of conflict in the crypto market.

1 Nov: US manufacturing PMI

Those who are against the price of cryptocurrencies (short selling) may face the prospect of liquidation as the week progresses. They can also see a more important communication between the stock market and crypto.

The first port of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, should be released on November 1, 2022. It comes from an annual survey of purchasing managers who can quickly get information about the performance of their companies.

Source: Y-Charts

A PMI of more than 50 means that the manufacturing sector is increasing, which increases the confidence of investors and causes an increase in the stock market. A PMI of 50 means no change, but a PMI below 50 means that the manufacturing sector has weakened.

2 Nov: Eurozone manufacturing PMI and federal funds rates

A similar metric in the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI, is due on November 2, 2022. It shows the health of the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone region.

The ISM PMI for October 2022 is down to 50.2, beating analysts’ expectations of 50 after 50.9 last month. Historically, fiat currencies like the US dollar have strengthened, with the PMI exceeding 50.

ru production pmi
Source: S&P Global

On the other hand, a PMI below 50 for two consecutive months indicates that the economy is in a recession.

The low PMI of 50.2 shows that the economy is slowing down, probably because of the recent increase in interest rates by the Fed. At press time, the crypto market is largely stable, with five of the top ten cryptos by market cap in green and five in red.

3 Nov: Eurozone September unemployment rate

The US Labor Department is also set to release the unemployment rate for October 2022. A drop in the unemployment rate usually means that the labor market is strong. motivated by economic prosperity. The Eurozone will release its September 2022 employment estimate on November 3, 2022.

eu rates of unemployment crypto market
Source: Trading Economics

4 Nov: US October unemployment

Analysts expect the US unemployment rate to rise to 3.6% for 3.5% in September 2022.

If this is true, it could force the Federal Reserve to use the brakes on its interest rate hikes cautiously. This slowdown can be encouraging for crypto markets, which means that the economy cannot fall into a recession.

We have no crypto market jobs
Source: Trading Economics

Meanwhile, analysts predict that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 75 basis points to 4% on November 2, 2022.

After the publication of the number of unemployment of September 2022, which showed a lower number than in August 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell to $ 12 million while its price fell to the 2%

7 Nov: US Employment trends index

The Employment Trends Index is another important number that shows where the job market is likely to go in the next few months. The high number means that jobs will soon increase. A lower number means jobs may decrease in the short term.

Let's not work crypto market system
Source: The Board of Directors

If the Fed continues to move to loosen the labor market, it could reduce hiring in the next few months. As the Fed rate drops, the central bank may slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

This can be good for Bitcoin as a risky asset, because investors will invest in the cryptocurrency because the threats of a recession have disappeared.

8 Nov: Eurozone stock market report

September 2022 Eurozone sales, scheduled for November 8, may indicate that the region is falling into recession. In August 2022, retail sales, a proxy for consumer demand, fell 0.3% compared to July 2022.

u shopping mall
Source: Trading Economics

The region has been hit hard by rising energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine. If demand continues to fall, it may affect sales, as customers will have less income to spend on risky assets.

However, the picture can be more pronounced if the European governments take measures to reduce taxes or provide refunds for the cost of energy.

8 November: US election

With the US midterm elections around the corner, the future for crypto markets in the US is less clear.

There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 35 seats in the Senate. While Republicans are generally more pro-crypto than their Democrat counterparts, a Republican victory may not result in pro-crypto legislation.

We are in the midterm elections
Source: The New York Times

The Crypto Framework of President Joe Biden has made the issue even more complicated, which may result in the failure of the law due to various bills passed by Congress.

10 Nov: US October CPI and real income strong

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2022 is scheduled to be released on Nov. 10, 2022, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. The CPI estimate for Sep. It came in at 8.2%, just a 0.1% drop from the August rate of 8.3%.

crypto market trading signals
Source: Bls.gov

The crypto markets did not have much of a reaction on Sep. But they seem to respond to the opening of the October 2022 rate when it comes higher than last month. At first, the high month-on-month CPI caused the crypto market to fall as the price fluctuated. If the Oct. rates higher than last month, can result in a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin and the liquidation of leveraged positions. However, from the chart, it seems that the CPI rate has formed a peak.

How Prepared Is The Crypto Market For These Financial Crisis?

In the midst of all the economic factors listed above, Bitcoin is struggling with the resistance of the descending triangle line on the weekly time frame as the market moves towards the FED interest rate.

Descending triangles are generally considered a bearish chart pattern. In addition to that, Bitcoin is also testing the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time after seven months.

bitcoin price crypto market
Source: TradingView

These strong resistances can return the price to the support of the $18,000 level. The BTC price has been holding on to the $18,000 support for almost five months. A breach of this support level would be a breakdown of the downward triangle pattern. This can result in a big shock in the crypto market.

But, if the FED’s interest rate hike comes to 50 BPS, Bitcoin can deliver weekly above the line. Then, the bearish pattern will not work.

For the latest BeInCrypto Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

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