The global energy crisis caused by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is causing deep and long-lasting changes that have the potential to accelerate the transition to a sustainable and secure energy system, according to the IEA’s latest assessment. World Energy Outlook.
Today’s energy crises present shocks of unprecedented scope and complexity. The biggest tremors were felt in the markets of natural gas, coal and electricity – and significant turmoil in the oil markets as well, forcing the release of the oil stocks of two incomparable proportions of the member countries of the IEA to avoid further major disruptions. With constant political and economic concerns, energy markets are always very vulnerable, and this crisis is a reminder of the weakness and instability of the global energy system, World Energy Outlook 2022 (WEO) he warns.
I WEOThe analysis finds little evidence to support claims from some quarters that climate policies and overall commitments are contributing to rising energy prices. In the most affected areas, high rates of renewal were associated with low electricity prices – and efficient homes and electric heat provided a significant buffer for some consumers, albeit far enough away. The heaviest burden falls on poor households where a large share of income is spent on energy.
Along with short-term measures to try to protect consumers from the effects of the crisis, many governments are now taking long-term measures. Some want to increase or diversify oil and gas supplies, and most want to accelerate structural change. The most notable responses include the US’s Inflation Act, the EU’s Fit for 55 package and REPowerEU, Japan’s Green Transition (GX) program, Korea’s intention to increase the share of nuclear and renewable energy in its energy mix, and China’s clean energy targets. . and India.
To the WEOThe state of the stated policies, based on the latest policy in the global setting, these new measures help to increase the investment of clean energy in the world to more than USD 2 trillion per year by 2030, an increase of more than 50% from today. As markets adjust to this situation, coal’s rise in today’s crisis is temporary as renewables, fueled by nuclear power, see sustainable gains. As a result, the peak of global emissions has been reached in 2025. At the same time, the international energy markets are being restructured deeply in 2020 as countries adjust to the Russian-European break-up.
“Energy markets and policies have changed because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not now, but for decades to come,” said IEA Director Fatih Birol. “Even in today’s policy setting, the world of energy is changing dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and decisive change to transform the energy system into a clean, affordable and secure one. “
For the first time, a WEO A scenario based on the current state of modern policy – in this case, the State of Defined Policies – has global demand for each fossil showing a peak or plateau. In this scenario, coal use is falling back in the next few years, natural gas demand is reaching a plateau by the end of the decade, and increasing sales of electric vehicles (EVs) means that oil demand levels will end in the mid-2030s before declining slightly. to mid-century. This means that the total demand for fossil fuels declines steadily from the mid-2020s to the 2050s by an average annual rate roughly equal to the lifetime production of a large oil field. Shrinking is very rapid and more visible in the WEOClimate-focused situations.
Global fossil fuel consumption has grown alongside GDP since the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century: reversing this rise would be a pivotal moment in energy history. The share of fossil fuels in the world’s energy mix in the Planned Actions drops from around 80% to just over 60% by 2050. This could be associated with an increase of about 2.5 °C in the average global temperature by 2100, far from enough to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. Full achievement of all climate pledges would lead the world to a safer world, but there is still a large gap between today’s pledges and stabilization of global temperature increases of around 1.5 °C.
Today’s growth rates for the deployment of solar PV, wind, EVs and batteries, if maintained, will lead to a faster transition than predicted in the Policy Statement, although this will require supportive policies not only in the leading markets for the introduction of these technologies but. all over the world. Supply chains for other key technologies – including batteries, solar PV and electrolysers – are expanding at rates that support the world’s huge demand. If all the announced plans to increase solar PV production see the light of day, the production capacity will exceed the deployment levels of the Declaration of Commitment by 2030 by about 75%. In the case of electrolysers for the production of hydrogen, the potential excess of capacity of all announced projects is around 50%.
Stronger policies will be necessary to drive the significant increase in energy investment needed to reduce the risk of future inflation and volatility, according to this year. WEO. Reduced investment due to low prices in the 2015-2020 period has made the energy sector more vulnerable to the kind of disruption we have seen in 2022. While clean energy investment rises above USD 2 trillion by 2030 in the States’ Policy Framework, it will be necessary. to be more than USD 4 trillion on the same date in the Net Zero Emissions in 2050 Scenario, emphasizing the need to attract new investors in the energy sector. And major international efforts are still urgently needed to narrow the troubling disparity in clean energy investment levels between advanced economies and emerging and developing economies.
“The environmental case for clean energy needs no strengthening, but the economic arguments in favor of cost-competitive and affordable clean technologies are now strong – and so is the case for energy security. “Today’s alignment of economic, climate and security priorities has begun to drive the call for a better outcome for the world’s people and planet,” said Dr Birol.
“It’s important to bring everyone on board, especially at a time when the geopolitical breakdown in energy and climate is becoming more visible,” he said. “This means redoubled efforts to ensure that the entire nation participates in the new energy economy. The journey to a more secure and sustainable energy system may not be easy. But today’s crisis makes it abundantly clear why we must move forward. “
Russia used to be the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, but its attack on Ukraine is prompting a major restructuring of the world’s energy market, leaving it in a much weaker position. All trade links between Russia and Europe based on fossil fuels have finally been reduced before WEO Ambitious conditions Europe lacks, but Russia’s ability to deliver cheaply means it is steadily losing ground. Now the explosion has come at a speed few thought possible. Russia’s fossil fuel exports are not coming back – in any case this year WEO – to the levels seen in 2021, and Russia’s adjustment to the Asian markets is particularly challenging in the natural gas situation. Russia’s share of global trade power, which stands at around 20% in 2021, falls to 13% in the 2030 Policy Scenario, while the shares of the United States and the Middle East increase.
For gas consumers, the coming winter of the Northern Hemisphere promises to be a dangerous time and a time to test the unity of the EU – and the winter of 2023-24 may be even more difficult. But in the long run, one of the implications of Russia’s recent actions is that the era of rapid growth in gas demand is coming to an end. In the scenarios outlined, a scenario where gas consumption is high, global demand increases by less than 5% between 2021 and 2030 and remains flat until 2050. , putting a dent in gas emissions as a revolutionary effect.
“Among the major changes taking place, a new energy security paradigm is needed to ensure reliability and affordability while reducing emissions,” said Dr. Birol. “That’s why this year WEO provides 10 principles that can help guide policy makers during the time to reduce fossil fuel and increase clean energy systems are always in place, since both systems are required to work well during the energy transition in order to deliver the energy services that consumers need. And as the world moves forward in today’s energy crisis, it must avoid new vulnerabilities from high or volatile oil prices or highly concentrated clean energy supply chains”